NFL Division Outlook
James's Division Outlook
(updated 7/13)
This is how I see the division and playoff races rounding out next season. These rankings will of course change by the time the season rolls around. I'll update these standings after any major trades, signings, injuries, etc. that happen. Check back often to see any changes that occur.
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AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
The Fins have made some huge strides since Nick Saban took over last year. They went from 4 wins to 9 last year and ended the year with 6 straight wins. All this took place with Gus Ferrotte under center. Imagine what these guys will do with Daunte Culpepper throwing to the likes of Randy McMichael and Chris Chambers. The defense will be solid as always, and with the improved offense, the Fins will be dangerous this year. No potential cold weather games means a strong finish is probable again, and the Fins will make a strong push and win the division in week 17.
Key Weaknesses: Not much here. The defense is a little old, and the O-line isn't great, but neither is a major problem that can't be overcome.
2. New England Patriots (11-5)
Too many losses to be major contenders again. Reche Caldwell is not going to do enough to make up for the losses of all those recievers. Adam Vinatieri is pretty much irreplaceable. There just isn't much positive to be said about the Pat's off-season. That being said, they still have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. That alone is enough to get them into the playoffs, but not enough to get them very deep.
Key Weaknesses: Linebackers, secondary, receiving corps, and kicker all need to be addressed in the draft. There are just too many holes and not enough great players out there for the Pats to fill them all.
3. Buffalo Bills (5-11)
The Bills' future in Buffalo is in question. The owner has even gone as far as to say that he can only guarantee the team being in Buffalo for this upcoming season. It's not that he doesn't like Buffalo, but with the new revenue sharing plan in place, he seems to think that it would be "impossible" to put a winner on the field. I'd have to agree with him.
Key Weaknesses: Experience at quarterback is a must to be a good team. Kelly Holcomb is the most experienced QB they have? This could be an ugly season for the Bills.
4. New York Jets (4-12)
The Jets are in shambles right now. Chad Pennington's shoulder just can't seem to get healthy. The entire team is getting old and slow. The Jets need to spend a year or two rebuilding before Eric Mangini can have a good team. Hopefully he'll realize this and won't try to win using all the old guys. The young guys need playing time to get better.
Key Weaknesses: Curtis Martin and the defense are getting older and older. The team needs an infusion of youth nearly across the board. The draft will help, but you can only do so much in one year. The Jets will have a high pick next year, and after that look for them to be a better team.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
They are a great team. No doubt about it. The only question is how the running game will do without Jerome Bettis. If Willy Parker and company can still be good and Deuce Staley can return to his old form, the Steelers could be back in the Super Bowl. If they can't this team is an early playoff exit at best.
Key Weaknesses: Running back. I don't think Deuce Staley can be the back that Jerome Bettis was last year. This could hurt the team, but they'll with all the question marks throughout the division, they’ll still win the North.
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
The defense is aging, but they have another year or two. With Steve McNair, this team will be a contender again.
Key Weaknesses: Wide Receiver. Derrick Mason is pretty good, and he has chemistry with McNair from their days in Tennessee, but who else is there to catch the ball? Todd Heap is a good option when he’s healthy, but that’s a rarity these days.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
The wildcard here is Carson Palmer. I don’t see him coming back until week 6 at the earliest. If he misses 6 games, the Bengals will likely go 2-4 in that span under Anthony Wright. Expecting Palmer to come in off the injury and finish the year better than 6-4 would be crazy. They’ll be a lot better when he’s around for the full season.
The defense is inconsistent. Marvin Lewis needs to get this team better quick. He'll have this unit in the top 10 by next year, but that doesn't help him when the team needs to rely on its defense: now.
4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
The Browns are still a year away. They'll be more competitive, but they still need quite a few holes to be filled.
Key Weaknesses: Quarterback, and defense. Charlie Frye isn't going to be the answer for Romeo Crennel, at least not yet. The defense is getting better, but they still need some D-line help.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
The Colts have suffered some losses. Most notably Edgerrin James. They'll win the division easily only because nobody else in the division is good enough. They do get Adam Vinatierri, and the Pats are down this year, so maybe they'll make it to the Super Bowl this year. That's if, and only if they can get production out of Dominick Rhodes and Joseph Addai. If not, they won't do much in the post season.
Key Weaknesses: Running Back. They won’t replace Edgerrin James, but they need someone to take some of the heat of Peyton Manning and the passing game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
The Jags are a very good team. They made the playoffs last year. Look for them to do the same this year. They still need to make some additions if they want to be serious contenders for a Super Bowl.
Key Weaknesses: Wide receiver, tight end, and running back. Byron Leftwich needs some weapons. Jimmy Smith is gone, so who’s going to catch the ball? The rest of the recievers are too raw. At running back, Fred Taylor is still pretty good, but he’s getting older. The Jags really need to get some younger guys in order to really be contenders.
3. Tennessee Titans (5-11)
They pretty much gave up on competing and moved into the rebuilding process when they drafted Vince Young and traded Steve McNair. Billy Volek will be ok, but as soon as he loses 2-3 games in a row, he’ll be out and the learning curve for Young begins.
Key Weaknesses: Wide receiver. They need to get some targets to throw to. The defense is also pretty weak.
4. Houston Texans (2-14)
They have way too many holes to be competitive this year. They have to get help at the OL, TE, WR, as well as just about everywhere on defense. There is simply no way that they'll be able to compete this year. They'll have their 3rd #1 pick in team history next year.
Key Weaknesses: Everywhere. This team could stand to get an improvement at just about every position. They need to get some talent in there to excite the fans and build off that to make a winning team.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (10-6)
The Broncos were good last year and they'll be pretty good this year. Jake Plummer will have a falloff. There's no way he can go 2 years without throwing all those interceptions. That said, they have the fewest holes in the division.
Key Weaknesses: Wide Receiver. They need some depth at wide receiver so that Jake Plummer has someone in a blue jersey to throw to.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
The Chiefs have a great new coach, a solid QB, an amazing running back, and one of the best tight ends in NFL history. So why will they only win 9 games and miss the playoffs? The defense. Plain and simple. The defense can't handle the talented offenses in this division.
Key Weaknesses: Wide receiver, cornerback, and defensive line. They need to improve the entire defense and give Trent Green some guys to throw to.
3. San Diego Chargers (7-9)
The Chargers decided to get rid of Drew Brees and go with the young, untested Philip Rivers. They'll be rewarded in the future with a great team, but he'll need a year to get used to playing NFL football. LaDanian Tomlinson will carry this team as much as he can, but even he can only do so much for a team.
Key Weaknesses: Defense, especially in the secondary. They need to improve those corner and safety positions of teams will throw all day on you. Even the Gus Ferrotte had a huge game against them last year. This is a major weakness for them.
4. Oakland Raiders (5-11)
The Raiders have a great receiver in Randy Moss, but is Aaron Brooks really the guy to throw to him? He's a good placeholder until Andrew Walter is ready, but don't look for huge success for the Raiders this year.
Key Weaknesses: The defense. The D is really old. Like older than dirt. But anyways, they need to get some youth in there in order to have a shot at competing once Andrew Walter is ready.
AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
2. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
4. Denver Broncos (10-6)
5. New England Patriots (11-5)
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Round 1 - Steelers def Ravens, Patriots def Broncos
Round 2 - Patriots def Colts, Dolphins def Steelers
AFC Championship - Dolphins def Patriots
Super Bowl - Home field advantage helps Miami through the playoffs, and if there were and games in Denver, New England, or Pittsburgh, they wouldn’t have won. Playing in Miami helps immensely and they make it to the Super Bowl, which also happens to be in Miami. The home fans give the Fins a huge boost, and they beat the Panthers easily.
Super Bowl XLI -
Miami Dolphins 31
Carolina Panthers 20
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